[T]he perpetually underperforming teams (like Tulane) and perpetually overperforming teams (like Boise State) are a function of luck* rather than some underlying market inefficiency.
Well, the season's over (except for the bowl games). Was I right?
Monday, December 3, 2012
A Richly-Deserved Beating: CFB ATS Update
At the beginning of the college football season, I asked whether you could use a team's recent against-the-spread (ATS) history to predict how they would do against the spread this season. I came to the conclusion that
Well, the season's over (except for the bowl games). Was I right?
Well, the season's over (except for the bowl games). Was I right?
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
The Big East and the Big Easy
News of the Big East's latest expansions burned up my little corner of the Internet yesterday. Being a Tulane fan, I was happy to hear my alma mater would be movin' on up to the Big East beginning in 2014.
Everyone else, of course, reacted with something between bewilderment and disappointment. To them, the Big East was the desperate drunk guy looking for someone to go home with at The Boot's last call, and Tulane...
...hey, don't be mean. Tulane is cute and really fun, you guys.
Aw, come on, Fran. Well, I'm from Rhode Island, so I'm excited.*
* - Seems like a strange matchup to pick, doesn't it? After all, Providence was IN Dave Gavitt's Big East. They named the floor at the Dunk after Gavitt.
Unusual homerism aside, let's take a look at some possible reasons why Tulane was added, essentially replacing Louisville (who left today for the ACC) and Rutgers (who left recently for the Big 10).
Everyone else, of course, reacted with something between bewilderment and disappointment. To them, the Big East was the desperate drunk guy looking for someone to go home with at The Boot's last call, and Tulane...
GO HOME, BIG EAST. YOU ARE DRUNK.
— Pod Katt (@valleyshook) November 27, 2012
...hey, don't be mean. Tulane is cute and really fun, you guys.
Can't wait for the Tulane-Providence game at the Dunk. What the hell happened to Dave Gavitt's Big East?
— Fran Fraschilla (@franfraschilla) November 27, 2012
Aw, come on, Fran. Well, I'm from Rhode Island, so I'm excited.*
* - Seems like a strange matchup to pick, doesn't it? After all, Providence was IN Dave Gavitt's Big East. They named the floor at the Dunk after Gavitt.
Unusual homerism aside, let's take a look at some possible reasons why Tulane was added, essentially replacing Louisville (who left today for the ACC) and Rutgers (who left recently for the Big 10).
Monday, September 17, 2012
Thinking Out Loud: Replacement Referees and Home-Field Advantage
Home-field advantage, like the Cubs' curse and the substandard jumping abilities of Caucasians, is one of those sports truisms that has been accepted for decades as a given. The 2011 book Scorecasting investigated this phenomenon and ventured to explain why home-field advantage still existed in the era of free agency, chartered jets, and five-star hotels. Consider this slideshow, taken from the presentation given by the authors at the 2011 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference:
Friday, September 14, 2012
Bad Beats: The Predictive Power of Past Years' ATS Record
Last week, I used this space to complain about losing money to my friend Dave by betting against Tulane football.
Faaascinating, I know. But it gives me a chance to make an Important Point about the predictive value of statistics.
My confidence in my bet was based on the fact that, from 2003 to 2011, Tulane covered just under 40% of their games against the spread. Winning 60 percent of your bets would make the average professional bettor salivate, so I was happy to bet based on this big trend.
There were two things I ignored: first, that one game is the smallest of sample sizes, and second, that past results are no guarantee of future performance. The second point is the interesting one, so let's focus on that: if a team has done better/worse than average against the spread in the past, does that tell us anything about its performance against the spread in the future?
Faaascinating, I know. But it gives me a chance to make an Important Point about the predictive value of statistics.
My confidence in my bet was based on the fact that, from 2003 to 2011, Tulane covered just under 40% of their games against the spread. Winning 60 percent of your bets would make the average professional bettor salivate, so I was happy to bet based on this big trend.
There were two things I ignored: first, that one game is the smallest of sample sizes, and second, that past results are no guarantee of future performance. The second point is the interesting one, so let's focus on that: if a team has done better/worse than average against the spread in the past, does that tell us anything about its performance against the spread in the future?
Monday, September 10, 2012
Protecting the Investment: The Stephen Strasburg Decision
When I heard that the Washington Nationals had shut down Stephen Strasburg for the season, I thought I had a nice article for Monday all sewn up. I could find pitchers who had had Tommy John surgery, plot their innings in their first full season after the injury, and compare that to their WAR or xFIP over the next five years.
But no, the Nationals insisted, this had nothing to do with his arm but rather his "mental state", so there goes that article.
By pinning the decision on Strasburg's mental state, the Nationals are short-circuiting any number of arguments with the "You-don't-know-what-we-know" card. It's a good card, with shiny foil edges, a limited-edition number on the back, and maybe a piece of a game-used uniform included. If it were an issue with his arm, you could use incomplete data to make quasi-flawed arguments about whether protecting pitchers actually did anything. But his mental state? How can you, mere mortal, possibly claim to know anything about what Strasburg is thinking or feeling? Or at least, how can you claim to know more than the people in the metaphorical trenches with him?
But no, the Nationals insisted, this had nothing to do with his arm but rather his "mental state", so there goes that article.
By pinning the decision on Strasburg's mental state, the Nationals are short-circuiting any number of arguments with the "You-don't-know-what-we-know" card. It's a good card, with shiny foil edges, a limited-edition number on the back, and maybe a piece of a game-used uniform included. If it were an issue with his arm, you could use incomplete data to make quasi-flawed arguments about whether protecting pitchers actually did anything. But his mental state? How can you, mere mortal, possibly claim to know anything about what Strasburg is thinking or feeling? Or at least, how can you claim to know more than the people in the metaphorical trenches with him?
Friday, September 7, 2012
Bad Beats: Rutgers at Tulane, Sep. 1, 2012
I owe Tulane football an apology. It seems I underestimated this year's team.
When the opening line for the season opener against Rutgers was listed at 17, I immediately jumped on Twitter.
When the opening line for the season opener against Rutgers was listed at 17, I immediately jumped on Twitter.
At work today: "Tulane is 17.5-pt underdogs in their home opener vs Rutgers!" "That's it? Take Rutgers."Even when confronted with the one other Tulane football fan on Twitter, I refused to back down.
— Bryan Cole (@Doctor_Bryan) August 9, 2012
“@jbr1657: Rutgers didn't even score 17 at home against Tulane in 2010” // Forgot about this. Prediction: Rutgers 14, Tulane -6 #rollwaveAnd it seemed Vegas agreed with me, kind of: by the week of the game, the line had moved to 20, though the over/under still suggested Tulane's score would be a natural number.
— Bryan Cole (@Doctor_Bryan) August 9, 2012
Monday, August 27, 2012
Unsexy and I Know It
Bryan returns with his entry in the Grantland Fantasy Island competition. It didn't get picked, but it might just help you in your upcoming fantasy draft. Go nuts.
Nothing I write here will win your fantasy football league for you, because leagues aren’t won on draft day.
No, leagues are won with midseason pickups, by making sure you know the instant that rookie running back wins the starting job. And when his last-minute touchdown seals victory over your roommate, you sleep with one eye open and a frying pan in hand, just in case.
But at least you won.
Nothing I write here will win your fantasy football league for you, because leagues aren’t won on draft day.
No, leagues are won with midseason pickups, by making sure you know the instant that rookie running back wins the starting job. And when his last-minute touchdown seals victory over your roommate, you sleep with one eye open and a frying pan in hand, just in case.
But at least you won.
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