The Big East and the Big Easy

News of the Big East's latest expansions burned up my little corner of the Internet yesterday. Being a Tulane fan, I was happy to hear my alma mater would be movin' on up to the Big East beginning in 2014.

Everyone else, of course, reacted with something between bewilderment and disappointment. To them, the Big East was the desperate drunk guy looking for someone to go home with at The Boot's last call, and Tulane...

GO HOME, BIG EAST. YOU ARE DRUNK.

— Pod Katt (@valleyshook) November 27, 2012

...hey, don't be mean. Tulane is cute and really fun, you guys.

Can't wait for the Tulane-Providence game at the Dunk. What the hell happened to Dave Gavitt's Big East?

— Fran Fraschilla (@franfraschilla) November 27, 2012

Aw, come on, Fran. Well, I'm from Rhode Island, so I'm excited.*

* - Seems like a strange matchup to pick, doesn't it? After all, Providence was IN Dave Gavitt's Big East. They named the floor at the Dunk after Gavitt.

Unusual homerism aside, let's take a look at some possible reasons why Tulane was added, essentially replacing Louisville (who left today for the ACC) and Rutgers (who left recently for the Big 10).

Bad Beats: The Predictive Power of Past Years' ATS Record

Last week, I used this space to complain about losing money to my friend Dave by betting against Tulane football.

Faaascinating, I know. But it gives me a chance to make an Important Point about the predictive value of statistics.

My confidence in my bet was based on the fact that, from 2003 to 2011, Tulane covered just under 40% of their games against the spread. Winning 60 percent of your bets would make the average professional bettor salivate, so I was happy to bet based on this big trend.

There were two things I ignored: first, that one game is the smallest of sample sizes, and second, that past results are no guarantee of future performance. The second point is the interesting one, so let's focus on that: if a team has done better/worse than average against the spread in the past, does that tell us anything about its performance against the spread in the future?

Bad Beats: Rutgers at Tulane, Sep. 1, 2012

I owe Tulane football an apology. It seems I underestimated this year's team.

When the opening line for the season opener against Rutgers was listed at 17, I immediately jumped on Twitter.

At work today: "Tulane is 17.5-pt underdogs in their home opener vs Rutgers!" "That's it? Take Rutgers."
— Bryan Cole (@Doctor_Bryan) August 9, 2012

Even when confronted with the one other Tulane football fan on Twitter, I refused to back down.

“@jbr1657: Rutgers didn't even score 17 at home against Tulane in 2010” // Forgot about this. Prediction: Rutgers 14, Tulane -6 #rollwave
— Bryan Cole (@Doctor_Bryan) August 9, 2012

And it seemed Vegas agreed with me, kind of: by the week of the game, the line had moved to 20, though the over/under still suggested Tulane's score would be a natural number.