Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Super Bowl Hype Drive: Prediction Aggregation

Back in grade school, I used to poll my friends the week before the Super Bowl, asking who they thought would win. (Okay, fine: In order to get a better sample size, I asked the people who weren't my friends, too.) And they performed well considering the sample: off the top of my head, they correctly called the two of the three games I polled them on.

You may remember that, last March, I collected a few dozen brackets and graded them during the NCAA basketball tournament. Most of the brackets predicted that Kentucky would eventually win the championship, which they did. How accurate would a crowdsourced Super Bowl prediction be?

I'll be collecting predictions from media outlets and mathematical models throughout the week (including final scores where available), and posting some summary statistics each morning. After the game, we'll see who came closest to the actual outcome. Feel free to submit your own guess in the comments, and I'll include those in the sample too.

This does not count as a valid prediction.

TUESDAY: Have collected 47 predictions so far, which you can view in this Google spreadsheet. In all, 30 picked the 49ers and 17 picked the Ravens. For those who gave a final score, the average total is 48.5 (the over/under opened at 49, and is currently 47) and the average point differential -- regardless of winner -- is 4.7 (the line opened at SF -5, and is now SF -3.5).

No comments:

Post a Comment